# Tail Risk Matrix: Demographic Stage × Capital Account Openness


## N (observations)

| Demo Stage | Closed | Mid | Open |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| Early | 1012 | 399 | 409 |
| Mid | 791 | 560 | 306 |
| Late | 287 | 518 | 1060 |

## Residual SD (pp GDP)

| Demo Stage | Closed | Mid | Open |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| Early | 10.013 | 9.866 | 17.205 |
| Mid | 9.037 | 11.472 | 10.046 |
| Late | 6.293 | 6.807 | 5.513 |

## VaR5 (pp GDP)

| Demo Stage | Closed | Mid | Open |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| Early | -15.112 | -15.055 | -22.614 |
| Mid | -13.802 | -16.399 | -20.449 |
| Late | -13.548 | -15.805 | -8.798 |

## CVaR5 (pp GDP)

| Demo Stage | Closed | Mid | Open |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| Early | -30.629 | -19.786 | -40.212 |
| Mid | -24.559 | -27.087 | -26.781 |
| Late | -16.072 | -22.462 | -13.037 |

## Skewness

| Demo Stage | Closed | Mid | Open |
|:---|---:|---:|---:|
| Early | -2.748 | 0.370 | -5.759 |
| Mid | -3.652 | 0.543 | -0.592 |
| Late | -0.277 | -1.583 | -0.679 |

*Cells with N < 20 suppressed. VaR5/CVaR5 are left-tail (worst CA outcomes). Demo stages from pooled demo_tercile (early/mid/late transition). KAOPEN terciles from pooled distribution.*